tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-43491666390880737542024-03-19T03:06:47.141-07:00Life is a peachbasketLexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-87227426124008085182014-05-11T09:10:00.002-07:002014-05-12T18:23:27.062-07:00The Misunderstood Success of the Detroit Pistons<div class="MsoNormal">
For many basketball purists, the dominant Detroit Pistons
teams from 2001-2006 served as a metaphorical hat tip to the halcyon days or
yore, when it was allegedly <i>teams</i>, not
superstars, who won dominated the league by sharing the load, prioritizing “we
over me” and generally playing the “right way.” When the 2004 Pistons bested
the heavily favored and star-studded Lakers, it served as a coronation for the grouchy
pundits who had long lamented the (alleged) new shift of emphasizing individual
superstars over teams. For a generation of hoops fan, these Pistons were living
proof that you didn’t need a superstar to win it all, let alone a “Big 3,” so
long as you had a strong “<i>team</i>.” </div>
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All of this philosophical pontificating is well and good and
serves as excellent fodder for Thanksgiving debates with your uncles. Unfortunately,
for those old-school hermits who are adamant that you can (and should?) win without
a superstar and that good teams beat great individuals, the 2000-2006 Pistons
teams happen to provide excellent support…for their opposition.</div>
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You see, dear reader, the Pistons featured one of the best players in the league. In order to
demonstrate this point, I built off of the excellent research produced by <a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti">Mr. Arturo Galletti</a>. A few years back, Arturo crunched the numbers and developed <a href="http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/07/26/a-half-baked-notion-about-the-difference-between-the-regular-season-and-the-playoffs/">a chart</a> delineating the average distribution of wins among a given team. I opted
to compare this average distribution of wins to that of the Detroit Pistons to
determine whether the Pistons really were successful because of their depth. If
the Pistons really were a starless team who won because they featured 5 (or
more) good players, one would assume their breakdown of wins to be somewhat
equitable among the starters (~16% each) or at least for the contributions to not skew heavily towards one player. The data, on the other hand, suggests something completely
different:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrKL2V4QTD9NqW9z2JpJuycE0usOlBnLFazfRtuIQVaFEDLapMexJnaTSHg9a1q-2hxDx9fND-I6H7WaJeA6NnW3EWgRwPHluKQlSsiEj-CzdlrjqbkPyqwgxZdDyB0YFOH3qmtfS4nsMP/s1600/Pistons+vs.+Average.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrKL2V4QTD9NqW9z2JpJuycE0usOlBnLFazfRtuIQVaFEDLapMexJnaTSHg9a1q-2hxDx9fND-I6H7WaJeA6NnW3EWgRwPHluKQlSsiEj-CzdlrjqbkPyqwgxZdDyB0YFOH3qmtfS4nsMP/s1600/Pistons+vs.+Average.PNG" /></a></div>
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As you can see, the Pistons relied heavily one afroed man, who contributed an absurd 36% percent of their wins: Mr. Ben Wallace. </div>
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So what have we learned from this exercise? Not only that the
Pistons were actually more top heavy than than those
frequently cited 2004 Lakers, who produced 62% of their 51.55 wins from their top three slots (Shaq, Kobe, Payton), but that the Pistons did indeed feature a superstar; his
name was Ben Wallace and he had excellent hair and a proclivity for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6C5UVufEd3E">airballing free throws</a>. Don’t
believe me that Ben Wallace was not only the Pistons best player, but also
among the handful of top players in the league during that time? Check out
where Wallace ranked in the NBA in terms of Wins Produced each year from
2001-2006: <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced-2001/">1</a>, <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced-2002/">1</a>, <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced-2003/">1</a>, <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced-2004/">2</a>, <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced-2005/">6</a> and <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/wins-produced-2006/">2</a>. </div>
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In reviewing the success of the Pistons, it’s important to
remember them as an excellent team who owes much of their success to team
defense, a facet of basketball that is more attributable to the efforts of the
entire team than any individual (1). However, the prevailing narrative of the
Pistons as the quintessential example of how “teams beat stars” is downright
inaccurate. The story of the Pistons isn’t one of ultimate teamwork or the
whole being greater than the sum of its parts. Rather, it’s about a team
dominating its opposition by relying on great team defense as well as the otherworldly
production of Ben Wallace and the occasional brilliance/consistent contribution
of Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince.<br />
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(1) For the record, Ben Wallace was their best individual defensive player, too...'<br />
<br />
Thanks to Xquach for pointing out that while Ben Wallace was a superstar and the Pistons were more top-heavy than average, they were not an exceptionally top-heavy roster.</div>
Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-84284590137960680112014-05-04T15:07:00.001-07:002014-05-04T15:52:27.236-07:00Beyond the Big 3: the Spurs Real Secret to Success<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDGU0sXlPcmE9RlAT7cXr3t2yAC6-UQrfp5zVtNZ0doFhH52nKHqVq-1c_Wgw9NoPeiwzbwzpcrLv4UN3ZtgZ2C_Ot8JcVXyceVnEqDr-Pql32aKYFjWz_A0YHgCAkg_G_HnygzOSXBymH/s1600/spurs_Black_SEALE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDGU0sXlPcmE9RlAT7cXr3t2yAC6-UQrfp5zVtNZ0doFhH52nKHqVq-1c_Wgw9NoPeiwzbwzpcrLv4UN3ZtgZ2C_Ot8JcVXyceVnEqDr-Pql32aKYFjWz_A0YHgCAkg_G_HnygzOSXBymH/s1600/spurs_Black_SEALE.jpg" height="320" width="269" /></a></div>
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Since the Spurs began their incredible run of success under Coach Gregg Popovich, fans and pundits alike have sought to define the root of San Antonio’s unmatched consistency within the paradigm of a familiar basketball narrative. When the Spurs won their first champion ship in 1999, experts attributed their accomplishments to the popular “Twin Tower” model, which featured the historic duo of David Robinson and Tim Duncan. When the Spurs won again in 2003 with an older (but extremely productive) version of Robinson, the narrative shifted to emphasize the individual brilliance of Tim Duncan, while still highlighting the emergence of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili as key contributors. When the Spurs won again in 2005 and 2007, the narrative shifted once more, this time attributing San Antonio’s success to the all too familiar “Big 3” model (Duncan, Ginobili and Parker).<br />
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All of this is well and good and makes life easy for lazy sportswriters and prognosticators who would rather recycle a recognizable storyline than uncover a new one. Unfortunately however, any explanation that attributes the Spurs success to simply having the best player in the league or the best "Big 3" is incomplete at best and more likely downright inaccurate. In truth, the Spurs success is owed to a number of factors, two of which are criminally underemphasized, likely because they lack the sex appeal we all covet.<br />
<br />
So what are these two hidden factors that enable the Spurs to consistently outclass the competition? Simple: the Spurs <a href="http://lifeisapeachbasket.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-secret-ingredient-to-consistently.html">don’t allocate any minutes to bad players</a> and consistently surround their stars with stronger supporting casts than those of their opponents’.<br />
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Since I’ve already written about the way in which the Spurs avoid giving away wins via playing unproductive players, this post will focus on the Spurs consistently excellent supporting casts.<br />
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<b>Is it really the Big 3 or the Big 12?</b></div>
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In order to demonstrate that the Spurs differentiator for success is more attributable to their remarkable depth than their top players simply being superior to those of other teams, I sought to show that the Spurs didn’t typically boast the best “Big 3” in the league, even during their championship years.<br />
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As a proxy for demonstrating this theory, I investigated the Spurs three most recent championship rosters (2003, 2005 and 2007) and compared those rosters to the rest of the league. Specifically, I calculated the aggregate average per-minute production (1) of each team’s top 3 win producers, the goal of which was to objectively isolate the teams in the league who boasted at least three highly productive players. I then investigated the production these teams received from their "other" players (e.g. non-top 3 players) in order to determine if those teams couldn’t match the Spurs success on account of employing lesser top talent or an inferior supporting cast. The results show that the Spurs model for success is much more nuanced than simply attaining better top talent than their competitors (2):<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLJYDl3Zh3lOuQnqQVhJKZoJ2NdkZRJox85kGEyAxCBlAtUggwN9lZl7m11eFA6acCxMHh1kSMa8Gpa8jlWoP3c8ufnW9-zy24N9oUusUHL22ndXTve-yK5hGRUqi5yd21v2U4c2E_Z0-y/s1600/2003.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLJYDl3Zh3lOuQnqQVhJKZoJ2NdkZRJox85kGEyAxCBlAtUggwN9lZl7m11eFA6acCxMHh1kSMa8Gpa8jlWoP3c8ufnW9-zy24N9oUusUHL22ndXTve-yK5hGRUqi5yd21v2U4c2E_Z0-y/s1600/2003.PNG" /></a></div>
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According to the data, San Antonio has indeed featured one of the league’s better “Big 3’s” in each of its championship years. In fact, in 2007, San Antonio’s “Big 3” of Duncan, Ginobili and Barry (3) boasted the highest aggregate production rate in the league. That said, in both 2003 and 2005, numerous teams employed more productive “Big 3’s” than San Antonio, both in terms of per minute effectiveness and total wins produced.<br />
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However, it should also be noted that, compared to its competition, San Antonio has received more contributions from the rest of its roster relative to other teams who boast three strong performers. For instance, in 2005, San Antonio's "Non-Big 3" players produced nearly 12 more wins than the average of their counterparts on the other teams investigated. In fact, San Antonio’s “Non-Big 3” players contributed more wins in 2005 and 2007 than any of the other teams reviewed.<br />
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So what has this little exercise taught us about the Spurs model for success?<br />
<br />
In the world of sports punditry, there is no room for humble agnosticism. Each victory or defeat is traced to precise variables, some of which may be as unquantifiable and nebulous as “intangibles,” “team chemistry” or simply “wanting it more.” In the case of the San Antonio Spurs, however, a more nuanced explanation for success is required, and no explanation is complete so long as it overlooks the significant contributions of San Antonio’s “other” players.<br />
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1. In this case, average production is measured via Wins Produced per 48 minutes WP48 (WP48).<br />
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2. I’ll be the first to acknowledge that is hardly a foolproof
methodology: for example, it doesn’t account for instances when a top player
may not have produced a top three win total for his team due to injuries. Moreover, defining "top talent" by looking at top 3 players (as opposed to top 1 or 2 players, for instance) is pretty arbitrary, and it should be noted that in each of the Spurs championship years, Duncan was among the best players in the league. Caveats aside, this exercise provides a decent proxy for determining if San Antonio comparative advantage is on account of its top tier talent or its depth.<br />
<br />
3. If you substitute Tony Parker (the assumed 3<sup>rd</sup>
member of San Antonio’s “Big 3”) the aggregate WP48 drops to .238 although the
absolute wins produced stays roughly the same as Parker played many more
minutes (albeit less effectively) than Barry in 2007.<br />
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Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-41180610266916805742014-03-22T15:15:00.002-07:002014-03-25T16:52:18.878-07:007 "Busts" who are better than you thought they were<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFolgD8QkFAC5Vexw5K6Cvv_Uu101v8nLLk9_FuNIcRme5ZXrbYkHtZOTOWNN9XoxYoyaa9vKuy-gW94NdhVpbFmvXctuXED9oBdItERd6YDV66LO2jBpL9b7d3sp5DHwy-EKGMjTj3XON/s1600/Space+Jam.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFolgD8QkFAC5Vexw5K6Cvv_Uu101v8nLLk9_FuNIcRme5ZXrbYkHtZOTOWNN9XoxYoyaa9vKuy-gW94NdhVpbFmvXctuXED9oBdItERd6YDV66LO2jBpL9b7d3sp5DHwy-EKGMjTj3XON/s1600/Space+Jam.jpg" height="216" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>"Space Jam" had it right - Shawn Bradley was a "star!" </b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Every year, NBA teams devote massive resources in order to make the right selections in the draft. Nevertheless, for a variety of reasons, most drafts yield underachievers and even some “busts” <b>-</b> players who produce considerably less ROI than would be expected from their draft slot and ultimately go on to lead unproductive careers (see, <a href="http://lifeisapeachbasket.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-secret-ingredient-to-consistently.html">Bargnani, Andrea</a> for more information).<br />
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Occasionally, however, highly-drafted players will be misbranded as busts simply because the player blossoms later in his career or because his contributions don’t align with what the fans and media perceive as valuable (points). For this poor NBA soul archetype (<a href="http:/#footnote-1">1</a>), any successes will bear a scarlet footnote denoting that the player was drafted early.<br />
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Here are 7 examples of players who have been unfairly mislabeled as “busts” as well as a few honorable mentions who may not be deemed busts, but nonetheless took more flak than they deserved.<br />
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<b>Shawn Bradley – Pick #2 (1993)</b><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX75tcBcBEZsVqgHykWw8GvQWA42Y_UmDxvZ5bPNRj0i9JzENrOyXUrHagTOXjkGsBS8ZSFzmyXDiMotWi3_wAaSGM_Er6cLqA-vbR6m3QrGrZhR4oMNyvF40FqQvMiRzX_v7yIWtZ9xCz/s1600/shawn-bradley.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX75tcBcBEZsVqgHykWw8GvQWA42Y_UmDxvZ5bPNRj0i9JzENrOyXUrHagTOXjkGsBS8ZSFzmyXDiMotWi3_wAaSGM_Er6cLqA-vbR6m3QrGrZhR4oMNyvF40FqQvMiRzX_v7yIWtZ9xCz/s1600/shawn-bradley.jpg" height="320" width="213" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Gangly? Yes. Goofy? Absolutely. A bust? Hell No!</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
No, I’m not kidding.<br />
<br />
Although he’s best remembered for manning the lower half of posters, serving as Tracy McGrady’s in-game <a href="http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/001/151/029/tracy_mcgrady2_display_image.jpg?1312331912" target="_blank">dunk prop</a> and having his hysterically <a href="http://jazzfanatical.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/shawn-bike.jpg" target="_blank">oversized </a>bicycle <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7217076/former-nba-center-shawn-bradley-stolen-custom-bicycle-found" target="_blank">stolen</a> by a thief who clearly has a better grasp for humor than he does for pawn-shop demand, Shawn Bradley actually put together an admirable career as a productive center who rebounded and blocked shots at high rates while shooting a high percentage. <br />
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In fact, from 2000-2004, Bradley was 80% more productive than the average NBA player, including one year (2003) in which he produced 2.6 times the number of wins per 48 minutes compared to the average NBA player! That’s legit star-level production from an alleged “bust!” (<a href="http:/#footnote-2">2</a>) <br />
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Shawn Bradley was a lot of things to a lot of people. Most notably, as a 7-foot 6-inch goofy looking, German-born, white, Mormon, he was every NBA player’s favorite trophy for the NBA version of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UEi-Wm0OFII" target="_blank">Slam-Dunk Buckhunter</a>. One thing he was not? A bust. <br />
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<b>Tony “El Busto” Battie – Pick #5 (1997)</b><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiktcUneLJvD0ulEXz2j2MrWcgFqRDW8d41caUQWVFUCou2hZ9hhulm9GhRQK9SxXJiNsi7a1p7NaOTNaz0uaUs5PSow7qeqWWKkCO7cKQAaFivAbN78-exT9OL4EAGZOI65y7ZtLtOQC3k/s1600/Battie.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiktcUneLJvD0ulEXz2j2MrWcgFqRDW8d41caUQWVFUCou2hZ9hhulm9GhRQK9SxXJiNsi7a1p7NaOTNaz0uaUs5PSow7qeqWWKkCO7cKQAaFivAbN78-exT9OL4EAGZOI65y7ZtLtOQC3k/s1600/Battie.jpg" height="320" width="219" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Poor Tony Battie never overcame his "premature bust" problem. </b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Former Nuggets star Dan Issel loved shooting so much, that when he retired and had to stop shooting hoops, he opted instead to shoot himself in the foot. In one of the more charmingly short-sighted interviews of all time, Issel, the soon-to-be new GM of the Denver Nuggets, went on a local radio station and referred to rookie Tony Battie as “El Busto.” Besides hilariously torpedoing the trade value for what would soon become his own asset, Issel labeled Battie a bust prematurely (pun could not be more intended).<br />
<br />
In his prime years from 2000-2003, Battie was a strong performer, boasting a Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48) that was 75% higher than the average NBA player. Although he didn’t score frequently, Battie made his shots at a very high percentage and collected a high percentage of offensive rebounds (a highly undervalued skill, as it’s of the only ways to <a href="http://lifeisapeachbasket.blogspot.com/2014/01/demystifying-destructive-myth-of-shot.html" target="_blank">“create”</a> a shot).<br />
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<b>Eddie Griffin - Pick #7 (2001)</b><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKLymGTI3fLIX7gyGjXDX_DUqmigREBe9_YfCkW91wen2AoAqn8r2qlwtnkP1BcP7hAp7dy4aQaTzO0aOQju5_ZGsJ9agzDDguBjNfLjzUrSBp627YK1yKZ5T2x3vp-uKDxVnuhbB6ACwT/s1600/GriffinHou.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKLymGTI3fLIX7gyGjXDX_DUqmigREBe9_YfCkW91wen2AoAqn8r2qlwtnkP1BcP7hAp7dy4aQaTzO0aOQju5_ZGsJ9agzDDguBjNfLjzUrSBp627YK1yKZ5T2x3vp-uKDxVnuhbB6ACwT/s1600/GriffinHou.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Jeff Van Gundy wonders aloud whether Eddie's headband is restricting blood flow to his brain</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
More well-known for his tragic, premature death and for being a headcase who missed team flights, Griffin had a short and inconsistent career. However, he was actually a league average player who even produced at a 40% above average clip in 2005, after missing all of 2004...while enrolled at an alcohol rehabilitation center.<br />
<br />
True, Griffin did not produce as many wins over his first few years as can be expected from the average #7 pick: per the inimitable <a href="https://twitter.com/ArturoGalletti" target="_blank">Arturo Galletti</a>, the #7 pick can be expected on average to produce <a href="http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/07/22/ranking-thirty-years-of-draft-picks/">15.3</a><span id="goog_2101677413"></span><span id="goog_2101677414"></span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/"></a> wins over their first 4 years (the length of their rookie contract) while Griffin only mustered 10.33. However, when you take into account that Griffin did this in only 3 years (he was in rehab for his 4th year) and that his WP48 during this time frame was identical to what could be expected from the #7 overall pick (.098), I find it an exaggeration to call him a “bust.”<br />
<br />
Finally, can you really consider a player a bust when he fails for the exact reason he was considered a risky pick in the first place? Calling Griffin a bust because his well-documented questionable attitude and “off the court” issues caught up to him is the equivalent of labeling Royce White a bust because his anxiety and fear of flying made “NBA basketball player” possibly the worst occupation he could pursue, right behind “pilot.” There’s a difference between high-risk/high-reward players that don’t work out and flat out busts who never lived up to the hype. Griffin is one of the former. <br />
<br />
<b>Josh Childress – Pick #6 (2004)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCXGrck5OykOHB1s4L_CMORPxd1riUEP9jGyMZDnDFrpwr84mv-vE-R7z8NJyOObsudF_uNhGacBdxSIrrW5Hp7zevBNr43_TZbQ1PYfq5UoTgFbdVmSqBg606r0K6IvrC1-zw3p5XaHlk/s1600/JChill.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCXGrck5OykOHB1s4L_CMORPxd1riUEP9jGyMZDnDFrpwr84mv-vE-R7z8NJyOObsudF_uNhGacBdxSIrrW5Hp7zevBNr43_TZbQ1PYfq5UoTgFbdVmSqBg606r0K6IvrC1-zw3p5XaHlk/s1600/JChill.JPG" height="227" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Once his teammates introduced him to Google Hangouts, J-Chill cut his cell phone(s) bills by over 75%!</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Josh Childress temporarily held the title as the most divisive player between basketball purists and statheads like yours truly. True, his “range” is basically offensive rebounds and backdoor cuts, he has trouble staying healthy and he kinda looks like a flamboyant, stoned T-rex when shooting. But, J-Chill regularly posted strong True Shooting percentages and leveraged his long arms and athleticism to put up great rebounding numbers (particularly on the offensive glass where he was a monster) and generate his fair share of steals while seldom fouling.<br />
<br />
Add up all of Childress’ undervalued contributions and you get a player who produced 46.7 wins over his first four years. That’s a shade over 3.5 times as many as the average #6 pick has historically produced!<br />
<br />
Unfortunately, Childress then wasted the rest of his prime in Greece when he opted to sign a lucrative contract with Euroleague’s Olympiacos Piraeus during the 2008 NBA lockout. When he finally returned stateside, everyone remembered why they hated him in the first place and stopped giving him minutes. Now he’s out of the league, leaving one of the NBA’s all time silliest ‘fro wearers at home waiting for a call on one of his numerous phones :(<br />
<br />
<b>Martell Webster – Pick #6 (2005)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimmNLdTYnFXFDpImR42Kz-72_6o676a6YsMawh3NKEcXxQVnvxY2tyKsQsxiID_uCXN0WvYrRLGAJWrWfxi9Mxy_FxKX1uvYeiHtVOfJsxrrXP8bSUS1TKW04CC8_Vvuhg2x4210FSDK5q/s1600/grant_martell_115211.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimmNLdTYnFXFDpImR42Kz-72_6o676a6YsMawh3NKEcXxQVnvxY2tyKsQsxiID_uCXN0WvYrRLGAJWrWfxi9Mxy_FxKX1uvYeiHtVOfJsxrrXP8bSUS1TKW04CC8_Vvuhg2x4210FSDK5q/s1600/grant_martell_115211.jpg" height="264" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>Martell Webster is the only known example of a player who improved once joining the Wizards</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Martell Webster is better known in Portland as the guy who should have been Chris Paul/Deron Williams (the Trailblazers traded down from the #3 pick to take Webster, despite having a glaring need at point guard, one they called Sebastian Telfair) and the guy who became the center of one of the biggest legal settlements ever between two NBA teams when the T-Wolves sued the Trailblazers for trading Webster without fully disclosing the extent of his back injury. <br />
<br />
Yes, Webster’s first 7 years in the league vacillated between being injurious (to his own team) and injury-ravaged, but times have changed. Call it what you will – a mid-career epiphany, a much needed change of scenery (again) or simply the results of some late blooming – but there’s no disputing the fact that Martell Webster has been ballin since he got to Washington (<a href="http:/#footnote-3">3</a>). However you choose to define it, the source of his improvement is irrefutable: he’s shooting the lights out and sporting a robust 59.9% True Shooting percentage over the past two years by taking more than 50% of his shots from behind the arc and hitting them at a healthy 41% clip.<br />
<br />
In fact, over the last two years, Monsieur Webster has been producing 50% more wins per 48 minutes than the average NBA player and given that he’s still only 27 and has found his niche as 3-point shooter who can guard bigger wings (a skill set that tends to age like a nice Yellowtail, if not a fine wine) all signs point to his producing at an average or above level for the next few years.<br />
<br />
<b>Brandan Wright – Pick #8 (2007)</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzo5M_CuQw8pyM0DC0tbvNB2iKepKdrJ7Nvlv08V_hzApXhAmmAbIcWpuAe9oDPmLDRRqhkExcEQa-Zh8vUxwHv4fpGXatC-4oWqvibG237jeZ1Yjrjg2FLb-XRAmG6_hyZg9Vwplhk0p-/s1600/brandan_wright_wings.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzo5M_CuQw8pyM0DC0tbvNB2iKepKdrJ7Nvlv08V_hzApXhAmmAbIcWpuAe9oDPmLDRRqhkExcEQa-Zh8vUxwHv4fpGXatC-4oWqvibG237jeZ1Yjrjg2FLb-XRAmG6_hyZg9Vwplhk0p-/s1600/brandan_wright_wings.jpg" height="190" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>A candid shot of Brandan as he goes through pre-game stretching</b> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
If you want to call Brandan Wright a bust, be my guest. If you’re the type of person who values accuracy, however, call him injury-prone or unlucky.<br />
<br />
Wright has averaged just fewer than 38 games per year (not including this year) and missed the entire 2009-2010 season to injury, but when he’s been healthy, he’s been extremely good, producing 2x as many wins per 48 minutes as the average player throughout his career. <br />
<br />
So how has Wright, when healthy, generated so much value? It really comes down to two areas in which he excels: blocked shots and shooting percentage. Wright is routinely one of the leagues better shot blockers and annually reigns among the league leaders in shooting percentage. Naysayers will point out that Wright should lost points because he’s assisted on a high percentage of his field goals attempts (86% according to 82games.com) but these folks are missing the forest for the trees: there’s great value in having a tall guy with super long arms who:<br />
<br />
A) can finish at a high clip and<br />
B) doesn't take shots he likely won’t make<br />
<br />
There’s a reason not many guys, including other centers who only take shots around the hoop, shoot that percentage - it’s really freakin’ hard to do!<br />
<br />
<b>Al-Farouq Aminu – Pick #8 (2010)</b><br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_64etM9EZTb6BvBd9vOfEyO8Q38jOcTDxI4tFJPNtnUHdEwIkLJqlUUcdHDP_Y0xXQRKMwiEUFH-CQqwDwmQuoQDoFXWQl16kQXp8YWofJ_nojGKc6G5UOoBeCvdunv5etLrZ0NCVTeMv/s1600/tmz_aminu.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_64etM9EZTb6BvBd9vOfEyO8Q38jOcTDxI4tFJPNtnUHdEwIkLJqlUUcdHDP_Y0xXQRKMwiEUFH-CQqwDwmQuoQDoFXWQl16kQXp8YWofJ_nojGKc6G5UOoBeCvdunv5etLrZ0NCVTeMv/s1600/tmz_aminu.png" height="174" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>The best player on the Nigerian national team, <br />Al-Farouq Aminu has never actually been to Nigeria. He wants to go real bad though!</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Aminu is yet another example of a productive player whose is constantly undervalued because he can’t shoot. And yet, for all the folks who complain about the spacing he’s ruining (without citing any data or studies, mind you) as if he’s some child abductor, no one seems to mention the fact that he’s a rebounding machine who plays good defense without fouling (<a href="http:/#footnote-4">4</a>). For God’s sake, in the last 2 years alone, Aminu’s produced nearly 5 more wins than the average #8 overall pick does over his first 4 years! Oh, and did I mention the fact that at 23 years old, he still has him prime years ahead of him?<br />
<br />
As an aside, could the Chris Paul trade look any worse now? If the Pelicans realized at the time that Aminu would be the only good asset they would receive in return for the prime years of one of the world’s top 3 players, they likely would have just held on to CP3 and let him walk as a free agent. Well, at least their mascot no longer looks like <a href="http://www.sportspickle.com/2013/10/picture-new-orleans-pelicans-mascot-terrifying">this</a>! <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>The Honorable Mentions</b></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
Although these players avoided the scarlet letter "B," they still got a bad rap despite producing some pretty damn good seasons. </div>
<br />
<b>Raef Lafrentz - Pick #3 (1998)</b><br />
<br />
Raef Lafrentz had the misfortune of suffering a number of injuries that forced him out of the league by age 31 and of being selected in the draft before superior players like Vince Carter, Kansas teammate Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki (who was acquired by Dallas in one of the <a href="http://www.therichest.com/sports/basketball-sports/the-top-10-best-trades-in-nba-history/3/">sillier draft day trades</a> that have ever taken place). Objectively speaking, however, Lafrentz went on to have a fine if unspectacular run, capped by a late career renaissance in Boston.<br />
<br />
<b>Drew Gooden – Pick #4 (2002)</b><br />
<br />
Drew Gooden was not a strong performer in his first couple years and was, for the bulk of his career, a slightly below average NBA performer. However, I find it an exaggeration to label any player a bust when they produced at the level Gooden did foe a three year span: from 2005-2008, Gooden produced at 180% the level of the average NBA player.<br />
<br />
What I find most intriguing about Gooden’s case is that he was involved in just about every smart<br />
move the Cleveland Cavaliers have made in recent memory: Cleveland acquired Gooden and the highly productive Sideshow Bob (going by Anderson Varejao now) in a steal of a deal with the Magic in which they gave up only a couple 2nd round picks and fellow mislabeled bust Tony Battie. The Cavs subsequently resigned Gooden to a bargain of a deal (3 years for $23 million) and traded him at the tail end of his prime for a perennially undervalued Ben Wallace. These Gooden-related transactions represented perhaps the only underrated moves the franchise has made in recent history (ever?), particularly amidst a flurry of myopic transactions that typically proved fruitless but were glossed over by the magnificence that is Lebron James.<br />
<br />
<b>Nick Collison – Pick #12 (2003)</b><br />
<br />
Nick Collison is not only not an underachiever - he was kind of a steal.<br />
<br />
The average #12 pick is expected to produce 10 wins over his first four years, while Collison produced 12.9…in 3 seasons because he missed his rookie year with injuries to both shoulders. Moreover, throughout his career he’s produced at roughly 20% better than the average NBA player.<br />
<br />
<b>Jordan Hill – Pick #8 (2009)</b><br />
<br />
Hill is yet another player who is more accurately described as injury prone than unproductive, having produced very well, but only averaging 47 games per year (not including this year). In fact, over his last two years with the Lakers, Hill has produced more than 2 times as many wins per 48 minutes compared to the average NBA player.<br />
<br />
Hill blocks shots and shoots at a slightly above average rate, but his productivity really boils down to his spectacular rebounding numbers, particularly on the offensive end. To wit, the average power forward this year is averaging 11.7 rebounds/48 minutes, 3.5 of which come on the offensive glass. As for Jordan Hill? He’s pulling down a cool 17 boards/48 minutes, 6.3 (!) of which come on the offensive glass.<br />
<br />
<b>Tristan Thompson – Pick #4 (2011)</b><br />
<br />
With all this talk about Kyrie Irving trying to bolt the Cavs (<a href="http://lifeisapeachbasket.blogspot.com/2014/02/simmer-down-cleveland-kyrie-isnt-going.html">ain’t happening</a>, by the by) everyone seems to have neglected the Cavs player whose really deserving of an extension. I’ll give you a hint: he’s Canadian, switched shooting hands during the 2013 offseason and gets his shot blocked nearly as frequently as any player in NBA history. That’s right, it’s Ontario’s pride and joy, Tristan Thompson!<br />
<br />
Thompson is yet another example of a player whose skill set (rebounding) simply doesn’t align with the casual fan’s concept of productivity. That said, over the past two seasons he’s been far more productive than his highly touted pick and roll partner and is far more deserving of an off-season extension. <br />
<br />
Let me know who I left out in the comments section or via <a href="https://twitter.com/docoolstuff/status/426375108308258816">twitter</a>!<br />
<br />
<i>All Wins Produced numbers are cordially borrowed from <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/">Wagesofwins.com</a> or <a href="http://boxscoregeeks.com/">Boxscoregeeks.com</a></i><br />
<br />
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />
<br />
1.<span class="Apple-tab-span" id="footnote-1" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>They’re quite rich, actually, until they spend it all <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1467706-25-insane-athlete-purchases/page/24">3-D diamond renderings</a> of their own Predator-like faces (or Whoopi Goldberg, depending on your movie preference).<br />
<br />
2.<span class="Apple-tab-span" id="footnote-2" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Unfortunately, because he was so goddam big, gangly, etc… Bradley rarely played an injury-free season and couldn’t play typical starter minutes, thereby decreasing his absolute productivity. Alas, such is life when you’re in the .00000001% of the population in terms of height. <span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span><br />
<br />
3.<span class="Apple-tab-span" id="footnote-3" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>This very well may be the only known time any player has significantly improved since joining a Wizards team that is hardly renowned for its player development (or for its front office acumen…or for its players skill level…). <br />
<br />
4.<span class="Apple-tab-span" id="footnote-4" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Why do critics speak so dismissively about players who have limited shooting ranges? Sure, it’s a problem, but it can be overcome by contributing in other ways, as evidenced by the number of highly productive players who were considered offensive burdens due to their limited range (Ben Wallace, Dennis Rodman, Dikembe Mutombo, etc…). You’d think these players had forced themselves on a female hotel worker in Colorado or something.Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-39854507413379719012014-02-24T16:33:00.000-08:002014-03-22T15:25:54.103-07:00Simmer down Cleveland – Kyrie isn’t going anywhere, but you might be better off if he does.<div class="MsoNormal">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaqvLzZNYC0NB32ahZfy9p6lrPJZtfHXFfLTAsFbuyA47R2VC3bxknydkUeAWwyAZfUgbuac0U1gg1bYOT6Y1Rdpw0O_nDMTFC40TjZccuduAQjJ6IoG1WJANVZf34rJ_ABJsj7wRYAHHr/s1600/kyriedrew.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaqvLzZNYC0NB32ahZfy9p6lrPJZtfHXFfLTAsFbuyA47R2VC3bxknydkUeAWwyAZfUgbuac0U1gg1bYOT6Y1Rdpw0O_nDMTFC40TjZccuduAQjJ6IoG1WJANVZf34rJ_ABJsj7wRYAHHr/s1600/kyriedrew.jpg" height="218" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Uncle Drew ain't going anywhere...unless Cleveland really wants a ring.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Kyrie Irving caused a stir in Cleveland when he became the
latest athlete to hold the city hostage, </span><a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/news/espn-39-chad-ford-kyrie-irving-39-wants-230100271--nba.html" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">threatening
to leave</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"> for greener pastures. Although he never admitted as much on
record, word on the street is that he’s already champing at the bit to leave
the Paris of Ohio.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Lucky for Cleveland fans, I know two secrets that should put
a smile on their faces (no, the secrets have nothing to do with the citizens of
Cleveland no longer having to live in Cleveland (<a href="http://lifeisapeachbasket.blogspot.com/2014/02/simmer-down-cleveland-kyrie-isnt-going.html#footnote1">1</a>)). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">OK, ready, Clevelanders? Know how Kyrie Irving is threatening
to leave? Truth is, he has 0 say in the matter, so he isn’t going <i>anywhere</i> for the next couple years unless
Cleveland chooses to move him. There you go, Clevelanders, I can see you’re
smiling already! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">OK, but now are you ready to really have your mind blown? The
second secret is that it’s actually in Cleveland’s best interest to trade him
now, because his market value (especially coming off the All-Star game MVP) exceeds
his productivity. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Don’t believe me, guys who call this “</span><a href="https://twitter.com/docoolstuff/status/426375108308258816"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">hating</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">?”
Fine, I’ll walk you (slowly) through these 2 “secrets,” by playing <a href="http://lifeisapeachbasket.blogspot.com/2014/01/melo-isnt-scoring-more-or-winning-at.html">another</a>
round of: “3 truths, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kH0-QR9IzM4">ball
don’t lie</a>!”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><b>Truth #1: Kyrie Irving cannot leave on his volition until
2016 at the earliest.</b> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Because the NBA is essentially a legalized cartel with no
real competition for talent (like most major American sports league, mind you),
the rules that govern the league are very much skewed in the favor of team
owners. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Subsequently, the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) that dictates
league rules has mechanisms in place to minimize any free-market activity that would
take money out of the owners’ yacht funds and put it into the player’s “Roth IRA’s”
(that’s what the players call their </span><span style="background: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><a href="http://si.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1180684/index.htm" target="_blank">Bourré</a></span><span style="background: white; color: #444444; font-family: "Arial","sans-serif";"> </span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">fund)
(<a href="#footnote2">2</a>). One such mechanism is the draft, in which players entering the league
aren’t allowed to offer their services to the highest bidder (you know, like roughly
every other industry in our capitalist democracy), but are rather selected by a
team and offered what essentially amounts to a “take-it-or-leave-it” contract (3).
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">But wait, it gets better! This non-negotiable contract gives the
team control of the player for a minimum of 2 years with team options that enable
the team to control the player’s right for up to 4 years (4)! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">In other words, Kyrie can’t even begin to think about ditching Cleveland
until 2016 at the earliest.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><b>Truth #2: The number of players who have declined a max-level
contract extension to their rookie contract is a robust 0.</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">And you
thought we were done discussing the slave trade that is the CBA – pshhh, lovely
reader, it only gets better!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">You see, the CBA has this other fun clause known as the
“Early Bird Extension” that enables the team that drafted a given player to
offer that player both a longer contract and more money than other teams are
allowed. Moreover, the drafting team can offer the player that guaranteed money
<i>before competitors can even put in a bid</i>.
In the case of Kyrie, Cleveland will be able to offer him said max contract
this summer and you can bet your favorite Pog slammer that he’ll take them up
on their offer (5). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">What makes me so confident that Irving will accept an
extension? How about the fact that <i>no</i>
player in modern history has <i>ever</i>
turned it down? Because turning down guaranteed millions in a profession where
careers are short and can end abruptly is loonier than the Pelicans mascot’s <a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BYQQ8oBIUAANMbj.jpg">creepy face</a>
(pre-surgery). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><b>Truth #3: Kyrie Irving is a good, young player who may turn
into a great player. But he is not the superstar many perceive him to be and
likely never will be. </b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Kyrie Irving’s ungodly handles, unconscionable shooting range
and frequent trips to the line make him a highly effective scorer.
Unfortunately, just about everything else he does reeks of “meh.” Namely, his
defense ranges from average to porous and his possession statistics (rebounds,
assists, turnovers, steals, etc…) all scream “average.” <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">Add up the total package and you get a pretty good player who
has a change to be very good player…but Kyrie ain’t a superstar and he probably
never will be. To wit, I compared Kyrie’s first three NBA seasons to other
perimeter players who entered the league at 19-20 years old. What you’ll see is
that while Kyrie has performed better than some other players who went on to
have highly productive seasons (and he’s one of the more productive high-usage
perimeter players to enter the league at 19), he is nowhere near the superstar
levels of the NBA’s best:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIKGErSzoACf-hxsSs3tDiZHFr84IURj5YUIxTtBdwiAIgRXa62VXmJVZ-lzyURJVQ8YAxQeDLkDiClzzFwMVvLlDBKZ2B7XDHUAwRqbZWsewxNqPAjaCVQl5o72nnYnO8GNW6NYAs_GKt/s1600/Kyrie+Post.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIKGErSzoACf-hxsSs3tDiZHFr84IURj5YUIxTtBdwiAIgRXa62VXmJVZ-lzyURJVQ8YAxQeDLkDiClzzFwMVvLlDBKZ2B7XDHUAwRqbZWsewxNqPAjaCVQl5o72nnYnO8GNW6NYAs_GKt/s1600/Kyrie+Post.PNG" height="487" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">As you can clearly see, even accounting for the fact that Kyrie has a very high usage rate, he's much closer to the Tony
Parker/Mike Conley star-level player than he is the Chris Paul/Rajon Rondo
superstar-level performer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">To be clear, none of this is meant to imply that Kyrie Irving
won’t be a valuable player for the foreseeable future. At 21, he’s still very young
and again, his turnover rate can be somewhat justified by his high usage percentage, which portends well for this future. </span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">But at the end of the day, he’s not the current or burgeoning
superstar much of the league perceives him to be. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">If Cleveland really wants to capitalize on their best asset, they
should sign Kyrie Irving to an extension…and then trade him to some sucker who thinks
Irving will be the type of superstar who leads his team to a championship. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><o:p>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</o:p></span></div>
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<span id="footnote1" style="color: #333333; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">(1) Kidding. By all accounts Cleveland is a lovely town...especially if you ask someone from Cleveland :)</span></span><br />
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span>
<span id="footnote2" style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">(2) Thankfully for the players, NBA decision makers are dumb
enough that a free market isn’t even necessary for teams to totally overpay
players! There’s nothing better than having the league owners lockout the
players because the owners can’t control their own absurd spending habits ;)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">(3) This rule is cleverly veiled as a means of promoting
parity (which
the league <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2011/08/10/nba-owners-do-not-understand-competitive-balance/" target="_blank">incorrectly believes</a> is important to attracting fans)</span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">as the
league claims its improving competitive balance by rewarding the worst teams
with the best picks (unfortunately, this <a href="http://freakonomics.com/2012/06/05/michael-jordan-the-bobcats-and-running-the-lottery-treadmill/" target="_blank">doesn't work</a> nearly as well as the media would have you believe</span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">).
Because rewarding incompetence and undesirable behaviors (like losing on purpose to improve draft position) is how
incentives are supposed to work…right? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">(4) I’m referring to first round picks here. There are
differing rules for 2<sup>nd</sup> round picks and undrafted free agents as
well as additional minutiae that you’re welcome to dive into </span><a href="http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">here</span></a><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";">(5) It should be noted that NOT all players accept the
maximum number of years available. For instance, in 2006 Lebron James signed a
3-year max extension with the Cavaliers rather than the 5 year deal he was
offered. Sorry Clevelanders, bad example </span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: Wingdings; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">L</span><span style="background: white; color: #333333; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif";"> </span></div>
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Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-30032560613554184032014-02-11T17:54:00.003-08:002014-02-15T10:34:03.157-08:00The Danger of Following Bad Stats<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4MV_GlLpMO3GGiqq9GmN81wmgVaX3jmOPTiCq-hnv-V5-NAIN79g_xFPj2Prvg-4uBbbBtrRuH2GY1C1c2z95pZXhuo27Rv5gXFhzL2hT4fEopnN3Izj-hFmpmNhoKIvlbgV5Bs-1bUJY/s1600/Drunk+Stats.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4MV_GlLpMO3GGiqq9GmN81wmgVaX3jmOPTiCq-hnv-V5-NAIN79g_xFPj2Prvg-4uBbbBtrRuH2GY1C1c2z95pZXhuo27Rv5gXFhzL2hT4fEopnN3Izj-hFmpmNhoKIvlbgV5Bs-1bUJY/s1600/Drunk+Stats.jpg" height="180" width="320" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>“Some individuals use statistics as a drunk man uses lamp-posts — for support rather than for illumination.”</i></div>
<br />
It’s an annual rite of passage around this time of year for NBA pundits to generate countless columns bemoaning the fact that certain players were undeservedly selected to the All-Star game while other more deserving candidates were robbed of the honor (1). I typically ignore this cacophony of kvetching (2) given that I’ve come to view All-Star selections as a reflection of popularity and Q score rather than production, plus I’ve been advised by my doctor/Father to cut down on the <a href="https://www.blogger.com/" target="_blank"><span id="goog_1589032788"></span>snarky tweets<span id="goog_1589032789"></span></a>.<br />
<br />
There was, however, one such post that piqued my interest. <a href="http://hoopshype.com/galleries/thelighterside/25-all-stars-with-the-lowest-per-in-the-last-10-years#slideIdslide-0" target="_blank">Said article</a> aimed to determine the “25 Worst All-Stars” of the last ten years according to advanced metrics. Unfortunately, the advanced metric employed was none other than ESPN’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER), the ubiquitous algorithm developed by the renowned John Hollinger.<br />
<br />
In scrutinizing this list of allegedly undeserving All-Stars, I was surprised by the number of egregious false positives: truly great and sometime elite players that PER deemed unimpressive. Rather than angrily tweeting at the author (doctor’s orders), I instead opted to use the flawed list to illustrate yet another truism that flies over the heads of most fans, even the more well-researched ones: not all advanced stats are good and many can even be (gasp!) misleading!<br />
<br />
To illustrate this point, I’ve taken the players PER deemed the worst All-Stars of the last ten years and compared their PER that year to two other advanced metrics that are more comprehensive and more <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/09/20/breaking-down-wins-produced/" target="_blank">highly correlated</a> with wins: Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48) and Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48) (3). What you’ll see is that while there are some players that all the metrics agree were merely average (or even below average) there are others on whom the metrics vehemently disagree:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgavwkVBqtDivk2KRQtp7_2ZmSRnKRTIzri4IEr-1eg0YM2F2q4DCpbFYKk9LvWxy6oSbuhZR08z6yHqfmhR08xEZgn8hkrLVegee1S1dxJYEc9nYKqP1RHa3LE-5hhmk_p4hR6kqPt6dyR/s1600/PER+VS+OTHERS.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgavwkVBqtDivk2KRQtp7_2ZmSRnKRTIzri4IEr-1eg0YM2F2q4DCpbFYKk9LvWxy6oSbuhZR08z6yHqfmhR08xEZgn8hkrLVegee1S1dxJYEc9nYKqP1RHa3LE-5hhmk_p4hR6kqPt6dyR/s1600/PER+VS+OTHERS.PNG" height="474" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;"><i>*2012 WP48 not available</i> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
What’s important to note about the players PER undervalues is that they each marvelously reflect the flaws in PER’s model: in overvaluing scoring totals and undervaluing the worth of a possession, PER rewards players who employ many possessions at the expense of more productive players who don’t shoot as frequently but boast high True Shooting Percentages (Allen), or absurd rebounding and shot-block rates (Wallace) or guards who do just about everything else at an elite level (Rondo, Kidd).<br />
<br />
So what lesson should we take from this experiment, endearing reader? When it comes to advanced metrics, there is no democracy – certain measures are better than others and deserve greater input.<br />
So the next time you read some pundit (looking at you, ESPN) point out this Player X has a surprisingly good PER or +/-, kindly explain that they are using statistics the way a drunk uses lamp posts – for support, not illumination.<br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">1. <span style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -0.25in;">And<span style="color: #373737;"> </span>yet I can help myself: How the coaches selected the wildly
overrated Iso-Joe Johnson over the far more deserving Kyle Lowry or Lance
Stephenson AND missed out on both DeAndre Jordan (the league leader in rebounding and fg% on a great team!) </span><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -0.25in;">and Anthony Davis
(until injuries forced the latter into action) is literally mind-boggling to me.
Seriously, I had to take off work for a week, my mind was so boggled. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -0.25in;">2. Great name for a Jewish rock group.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; line-height: 115%; text-indent: -0.25in;">3. For the math behind why PER is an inferior metric, check out <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/faq/" target="_blank">this FAQ</a>.</span></span><br />
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Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-33942558595324824822014-01-31T17:40:00.001-08:002014-01-31T17:41:17.255-08:00Melo isn't scoring more or winning at all, but 2014 is easily his best year<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIV3zmj2kJt2JWIL1f9FoMaZOFh4CFdX35eQt4r9isvRm7kymjBTBmpLWPOPdzOSWM-aXpDS7Fs7RN6KZ09TyhT59s2Gq4EXs585n0btad0jTFNck0gYPlwv9FgEu8O6t8Olsgadhl4cz8/s1600/Melo+Figures+it+Out.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIV3zmj2kJt2JWIL1f9FoMaZOFh4CFdX35eQt4r9isvRm7kymjBTBmpLWPOPdzOSWM-aXpDS7Fs7RN6KZ09TyhT59s2Gq4EXs585n0btad0jTFNck0gYPlwv9FgEu8O6t8Olsgadhl4cz8/s1600/Melo+Figures+it+Out.jpg" height="265" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>It only took 10 years, but Melo has finally put it all together!</b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
On January 24, 2014, Carmelo Anthony did the unimaginable: he temporarily distracted me from ruminating on Justin Bieber’s painfully predictable DUI. Carmelo accomplished this miracle by recording 62 points (on an insane 66% shooting) along with 13 rebounds and 0 turnovers (NSFW XXX: <a href="http://deadspin.com/heres-every-shot-carmelo-anthony-made-in-his-62-point-1508817911">basketball porn</a>).<br />
<br />
Melo’s scintillating performance inspired me to first practice my jab step and then reflect deeply on what has been the most bizarre season in Melo’s divisive career; specifically, I laughed uproariously to myself about how Melo’s 2014 serves as the quintessential case study to elucidate two misunderstood NBA truisms.<br />
<br />
<b> 1.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>A player can improve his productivity without improving his scoring total or efficiency </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> 2.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Evaluating the performance of an individual by looking at his team performance is </b><br />
<b> noisy at best, misleading at worst and almost always just plain asinine. </b><br />
<br />
So how does Carmelo’s 2014 season illustrate the above axioms? Come along with me, charming reader, as we explore this question by playing the 2nd best game ever invented (1), “3 truths, <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kH0-QR9IzM4">ball don’t lie</a>:”<br />
<br />
<b>Truth #1:</b> This season, Carmelo’s scoring rate and efficiency are right around his career averages.<br />
<br />
<b>Truth #2:</b> Carmelo’s Knicks are playing poorly and not meeting (unrealistically high) expectations.<br />
<br />
<b>Truth #3:</b> Carmelo Anthony is undoubtedly playing the best ball of his career…and it’s not even close.<br />
<br />
Wasn’t that fun?! We can play again soon (promise!); but first, let’s reconcile the coexistence of these 3 seemingly conflicting truths and then explore how they demonstrate that Carmelo’s having his best year despite not improving his scoring and playing for an underperforming team.<br />
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<b>Truth #1: This season, Carmelo’s scoring rate and efficiency are right around his career averages.</b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
Whether you prefer conventional or advanced statistics (or swing both ways), the numbers tell a similar story: aside from his fantastic 3-point shooting percentage (regression much?), Melo’s 2014 scoring numbers are only slightly above his career norms. To wit, before he went off for his big night, Melo’s scoring rate was at exactly his career average (24.8 points/36 minutes) and his efficiency hadn’t really changed, with both his True Shooting percentage (TS%) and effective field goal percentages (eFG%) barely edging out career norms</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjljrqZrL7DvK-ww-izB8Kc8tEIHwxtIsCWbVCLF-8WOxb3BAaZPsljxLeQeFs2HCXiYPqpf9jQH8GJ_dKAmeYSU-eejqP0hLRgOQi10SRHkn63ShwC-USjFytlMDzh540CY_q9fBuMhsKa/s1600/Melo+Offense.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjljrqZrL7DvK-ww-izB8Kc8tEIHwxtIsCWbVCLF-8WOxb3BAaZPsljxLeQeFs2HCXiYPqpf9jQH8GJ_dKAmeYSU-eejqP0hLRgOQi10SRHkn63ShwC-USjFytlMDzh540CY_q9fBuMhsKa/s1600/Melo+Offense.PNG" height="122" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>Truth #2: Carmelo’s Knicks are playing poorly and not meeting (unrealistically high) expectations.</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Although some <a href="http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-knicks-the-wrong-idea">knew better</a>, the <a href="http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2013/oct/01/las-vegas-sports-book-releases-nba-overunder-win-t/">general consensus</a> was that this Knicks team, coming off of a 51-win season, was at the bare minimum a top-6 playoff team who might even steal a game or two off the Heat or Pacers. Well, we’re more than halfway through the season and the discrepancy between the Knicks’ projected win totals and their actual record is massive, leading many to determine that the Knicks (and subsequently Carmelo) have underperformed, particularly since the team plays in an Eastern conference that is so decrepit the league is considering canceling it next season in lieu of 80’s reruns (kidding… I hope).</div>
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<div>
Now, I’ll be the first to acknowledge that these expectations were unreasonable to begin with (2) and that injuries, particularly Tyson Chandler’s annual injury vakatsye (3), have cost the team wins. Nevertheless, it’s safe to say that the Knicks have greatly underwhelmed the mainstream media and fans this season and moreover, that anyone who chooses to measure a player’s performance according to his team’s performance would have to conclude that this is far from the best season of Melo’s career. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Truth #3: Carmelo Anthony is undoubtedly playing the best ball of his career…and it’s not even close.</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Carmelo Anthony is one of the more polarizing players in recent NBA history. For the majority of fans and pundits, Melo is perceived as an elite scoring savant who combines elegant footwork, overpowering physicality and a soft shooting touch to overwhelm any and all defenses. When he’s at his best, like he was during his 62 point outburst, Melo’s amalgamation of power and grace manifests in a dominant player who can seemingly score at will.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
For statheads, however, Melo has long represented all that is misunderstood about peachball. Sure, he’s always scored a lot of points, but Melo has historically done so with middling efficiency and without offering much additional value to his team. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This year, however, has been different. Melo’s overall productivity (WP48) in 2014 is 155% better than his career average and 56% better than his 2nd best year! </div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
What’s particularly strange about this improvement (aside from the fact that it’s happening at an age at which players <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703478704574612553424283372">tend to decline</a>) is that Melo has done it not with his offense, but by doing everything else better:</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_kME2YT2j3Hvypj749Ho4RP7akPr9S09yB4XeMCBkiGxpm8gmKKi6eTNN1HX4pHGMo9dqsVl4JEOhdrwDIjKDFFNoFxuqx_Iq_NGGIP3KErV7XbnlXzStnG0UsungSakZuncFqpjcoqb-/s1600/Melo+Overall.PNG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_kME2YT2j3Hvypj749Ho4RP7akPr9S09yB4XeMCBkiGxpm8gmKKi6eTNN1HX4pHGMo9dqsVl4JEOhdrwDIjKDFFNoFxuqx_Iq_NGGIP3KErV7XbnlXzStnG0UsungSakZuncFqpjcoqb-/s1600/Melo+Overall.PNG" height="78" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b> Bold = Career Best</b></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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As the above table illustrates, Melo has upped his productivity to a career high not by scoring more or more efficiently; rather, Melo’s upped his productivity by improving his possession stats - you know, those “little” things that determine who wins and loses. </div>
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<br /></div>
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So the next time an ignorant coward proclaims that basketball is strictly about “getting buckets” or that player X can’t be that good because his team is underperforming, tell said dum-dum that they are moronic, then calmly point to Melo’s bizarro 2014 season as exhibit A of their naiveté. </div>
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1.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>For those who are curious, studies show that the best game ever was actually <a href="http://www.mariowiki.com/Mario_Tennis_%28Nintendo_64%29">Mario Tennis</a> for N-64. It’s science. </div>
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2.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>This is what happens when you lose players who produce wins and replace them with players who are so bad <a href="http://lifeisapeachbasket.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-secret-ingredient-to-consistently.html">they produce <i>negative </i>wins</a>.</div>
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3.<span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space: pre;"> </span>Don’t get me started on the asshats who use injury-prone players’ absences as an excuse for a team’s poor performance. Tyson Chandler has a history of injuries and an enormous body - it’s safe to assume he’s going to miss games every year for the rest of his career, so plan accordingly and quit complaining! As far as I’m concerned, this rule applies to the following impact players: Tyson Chandler, Ginobili, Wade, Eric Gordon, Curry and Bogut. Leave your recommendations in the comments section or <a href="https://twitter.com/docoolstuff">tweet at me</a>!</div>
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Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-77034447200731382542014-01-21T18:52:00.000-08:002014-01-25T10:32:51.626-08:00Demystifying the destructive myth of the “Shot Creator”<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
While recently reading an ESPN <a href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/courtvision-the-best-shooters-so-far-2/%5d">piece</a>
by Kirk Goldsberry, the brilliant and thought-provoking spatial analytical
guru, I came across a seemingly innocuous sentence that was so galling, I was
impelled to stop reading, turn down my Puddle of Mudd compilation and <a href="https://twitter.com/docoolstuff/status/422115758240722944">tweet my
disgust</a>:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="background-color: white; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial; font-family: Georgia, serif; font-size: 13pt; line-height: 115%;">“I always say that the hardest part about
shooting in the NBA is actually getting a shot off, something normal people and
many NBA players have trouble doing.”</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%;"> – Kirk Goldsberry <o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 0.5in; text-align: center;">
<i><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Given Mr. Goldsberry’s impressive <a href="http://kirkgoldsberry.com/2012cv.pdf">CV</a>, I’m confident in declaring
that this is likely the dumbest thing he has ever written. You see, smart,
attractive, analytically-minded reader - next to committing a turnover, taking
a field goal attempt is literally <i>the
easiest</i> action any player can make on offense that’s tracked in the
boxscore. Moreover, there has literally <i>never</i>
been a player in history who was talented enough to play in the NBA, yet unable
to “get a shot off.” For Christsakes, Tyrone Muggsy Fucking Bogues averaged 7
field goal attempts per game for his career, and he’s no bigger than your standard
squirtle (1)! </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiS1-hznEi4hOQAmBlM2L6nkv67Uibjz2BdZUP9nDq89axfe4ULRtl45BbtMyhYaQbcN3txvfS8jKlLJWigStjQJ_JXZxNAs25cdEM0E53eqHY6Tx44ddGMoz0n_Qgo67wYokGQnWrv7tTk/s1600/Squirtle+++Muggsy.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiS1-hznEi4hOQAmBlM2L6nkv67Uibjz2BdZUP9nDq89axfe4ULRtl45BbtMyhYaQbcN3txvfS8jKlLJWigStjQJ_JXZxNAs25cdEM0E53eqHY6Tx44ddGMoz0n_Qgo67wYokGQnWrv7tTk/s1600/Squirtle+++Muggsy.PNG" height="127" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">When a Squirtle gains enough EXP points it evolves into a Muggsy Bogues!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Unfortunately, Goldsberry is hardly unique in exaggerating the
skill needed to take a shot. In fact, this facacta belief is so widespread
among pundits, the media and therefore fans that it has culminated in the “Shot
Creator” myth, in which high volume shooters are credited with “creating” the
shots they take. While this myth and its accompanying narrative may sound like
a harmless misunderstanding, it has actually damaged the game by cultivating
generations of misinformed fans, journalists and coaches and encouraging the
widespread practice of an isolation-heavy NBA offensive “system” that is
inefficient at best and downright repelling at worst. But before we can dig
into the impact of this myth, let’s briefly dive into its flawed logical roots.
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The crux of the “Shot Creator” myth can be traced two basic
issues: </div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -.25in;">
</div>
<ol>
<li><span style="font-size: 7pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The media’s fetish for raw point totals</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: 7pt; text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Credit (rather than a penalty) being given to a
player for taking a shot</span></li>
</ol>
<!--[if !supportLists]--><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first issue is fairly simple. The mainstream media tends
to emphasize the number of points a player scores far more than the efficiency with
which the player scored said points. This leads to inefficient high-volume
scorers getting far more credit than they deserve.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The roots of the second issue, however, are far more complex
in nature. Essentially, players are given credit for choosing to take a shot,
when in actuality players <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2006/11/17/a-comment-on-the-player-efficiency-rating/">should
be <i>docked</i> credit</a> for spending a
precious team resource (a possession). This is because, unless a player generates
a shot attempt off a defensive steal or an offensive rebound, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-berri/monta-ellis-carmelo-anthony_b_1349512.html">he
really hasn’t “created” a shot</a>; rather he has chosen to employ his team’s possession.
And yet, pundits, the mainstream media and consequently fans, consistently <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2007/12/18/different-answers-same-conclusions/">overvalue
high-volume low efficiency scorers</a> by crediting them for the points they
score, without docking credit for the resource (a possession) that they’ve
expended!</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So now that we’ve seen that the roots of the “Shot Creator”
myth can be traced to an obsession with point totals and misunderstanding of how
field goal attempts should be (dis)credited, let’s see how the myth has hurt
NBA basketball. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Well, first off, it’s led to the aforesaid “dumbing down” of
NBA fans, coaches and media. Want proof? Check out this list of players who were
selected for an NBA All-Star game and try not to laugh:<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable" style="border-collapse: collapse; margin-left: 4.45pt; mso-padding-alt: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184; width: 543px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 60.0pt; mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0;">
<td style="background: #A5A5A5; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 60.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b>Player<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #A5A5A5; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 60.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b>All-Star Year<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #A5A5A5; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 60.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b>Pts/Game<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #A5A5A5; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 60.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b>FGA/Game<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #A5A5A5; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 60.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b>WS/48<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
<td style="background: #A5A5A5; border-left: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 60.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-top-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" valign="bottom" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<b>WS/48 below average
(.100)<o:p></o:p></b></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 1;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Antoine Walker<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
2002-03<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
20.1<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
19.9<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.039<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.061<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 2;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Allen Iverson<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
2003-04<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
26.4<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
23.4<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.066<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.034<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 3;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Kevin Duckworth<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
1990-91<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
15.8<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
13.4<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td nowrap="" style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.082<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.018<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 4;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Juwan Howard<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
1995-96<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
22.1<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
18.5<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.082<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.018<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 5;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Latrell Sprewell<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
1994-95<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
20.6<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
17<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.034<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.066<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 6;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Chris Kaman<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
2009-10<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
18.5<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
15.8<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.044<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.056<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 7;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Jrue Holiday<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
2012-13<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
17.7<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
16.5<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.055<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.045<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 8;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Joe Johnson<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
2010-11<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
18.2<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
16.1<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.080<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.02<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Glenn Robinson<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
1994-95<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
20.9<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
18<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.080<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.02<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Vin Baker<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
1994-95<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
17.7<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
15<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.083<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.017<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 15.0pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
<td style="border-top: none; border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-left-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 97.0pt;" width="129"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
Mitch Richmond <o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
1992-93<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
21.9<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
17.4<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
0.087<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
<td style="border-bottom: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-left: none; border-right: solid windowtext 1.0pt; border-top: none; height: 15.0pt; mso-border-bottom-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-border-right-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; width: 62.0pt;" width="83"><div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
-0.013<o:p></o:p></div>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><br />Notice a trend? Each of these players took a ton of shots
and scored a lot of points, but produced a Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48)
below the NBA <i>average</i> of .100. And
yet, these high-scoring players were rewarded for their subpar play by being honored
as one of the world’s best players! </o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But glorifying players who don’t deserve it is not the only
problem the “Shot Creator” myth has perpetuated. Additionally, the “Shot
Creator” myth has led far too many teams to overvalue their high volume “Shot
Creators” and subsequently encouraged these naive teams to run inefficient,
ugly, isolation-heavy offenses that emphasize low-percentage shots from “Shot
Creators” in lieu of higher percentage shots produced by dynamic, team
basketball. For instance, is anyone really that surprised that the Raptors
offense <a href="http://www.bsports.com/statsinsights/nba/raptors-surging-wake-rudy-gay-trade">has
exploded</a> since it traded Rudy Gay and redistributed his low-efficiency
isolation shot attempts to more efficient team-oriented sets? In fact, forget
efficiency – do you think any Atlanta fans miss watching Iso-Joe pound the ball
into the ground for 15 seconds before taking a contested mid-range jumper? Didn’t
think so.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So the next time you hear someone reference a “Shot Creator”
or extol the value of a low-efficiency, high-volume scorer, tell them to quiet
down and listen. Then calmly explain to that person that he or she is the
reason NBA basketball is imperfect. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0px;">
<span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">1. Now, I will acknowledge that there are some
players who are so inefficient at scoring that they choose to refrain from
shooting, but this is very different from being </span><i style="text-indent: -0.25in;">unable </i><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">to shoot. Moreover, this choice is likely influenced by
their coach who would stop playing them if they shot frequently. To wit, what
player in their right mind </span><i style="text-indent: -0.25in;">doesn’t </i><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">want
to shoot and accrue all the money and glory that follows? Have you ever heard
of a player demanding a </span><i style="text-indent: -0.25in;">smaller</i><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> role
on offense? </span></div>
Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-11602266165677529442014-01-05T15:09:00.000-08:002014-01-25T10:19:57.551-08:004 reasons the Trailblazers should feel free to make summer vacation plans<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihF-5cFWdOGr4ffSzlQ_CVOXwtmbDLHs-tWR4T2aRMxLmQNMBjOA90r1cVk6JmRhMqOY70b8HhyphenhyphenJSOVnYcDkT_fWCEf0yuJeObm2-DyxSYlAbmZ9SAC7z7_wXxlcZyWqDzUkO4svh1QmKk/s1600/No+regression!.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihF-5cFWdOGr4ffSzlQ_CVOXwtmbDLHs-tWR4T2aRMxLmQNMBjOA90r1cVk6JmRhMqOY70b8HhyphenhyphenJSOVnYcDkT_fWCEf0yuJeObm2-DyxSYlAbmZ9SAC7z7_wXxlcZyWqDzUkO4svh1QmKk/s400/No+regression!.jpg" height="225" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4349166639088073754" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4349166639088073754" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">"1-2-3 NO REGRESSION!"</span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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During my recent Birthright trip to Israel, I had the
opportunity to meet two gentlemen from Portland, OR. Despite being knee-deep in
culture, history and hummus, our conversation quickly turned to the Trail
Blazers. While my two new friends extolled the virtues of LaMarcus Aldridge’s
sweet (albeit inefficient) midrange game and predicted great success for the
team going forward, they were perplexed by my tepid forecast:</div>
</div>
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<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
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“2<sup>nd</sup> round at best?!” they yelled at me (and the
rest of the population visiting the Western Wall). “Are you insane or a hater?
The Blazers are a contender!”<br />
<br />
After adjusting my disheveled kippah and assuring the guards
at the Wall that there was not a problem, I gave my friends four reasons the
Trail Blazers should be thrilled with their surprisingly successful season but
not expect it to extend into May:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"> </span></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><u> </u> <u>1.<span style="font-weight: normal;"> </span></u></b><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><u>The Blazers aren’t as good as their record</u></b><br />
<b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><u><br /></u></b></div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijKY7qbLRxis8-itMXmqVBL0Ns2cEDYcZXIrEwdQTCEOR3YHLzXGeDoujYYikiRQ0EYVGa8-oXKRbNzrtyN7fBv35bx29q-iwV8UbuBOL6IP4anDp2KKeuf44g7_W9JALI_ndS_4yWHoYB/s1600/Unlucky.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijKY7qbLRxis8-itMXmqVBL0Ns2cEDYcZXIrEwdQTCEOR3YHLzXGeDoujYYikiRQ0EYVGa8-oXKRbNzrtyN7fBv35bx29q-iwV8UbuBOL6IP4anDp2KKeuf44g7_W9JALI_ndS_4yWHoYB/s400/Unlucky.PNG" height="353" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: small;">Cheers to Arturo Galleti (@arturogalletti) and the good folks at <a href="file:///C:/Users/Lexie/Documents/WoW/boxscoregeeks.com"><span style="color: windowtext;">Boxscoregeeks.com</span></a> for putting together this fantastic chart. All their material is must-read.</span></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
To start, Portland’s current record is due for a correction.
Win/loss records are a fickle beast greatly impacted by randomness and luck.
Subsequently, predicting future performance by strictly measuring wins and
losses is at best myopic and at worst misleading. Thankfully, to combat this
unpredictability, we have a measure known as “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation">Pythagorean
expectation</a>,” or in laymen’s terms, “expected win-loss record.” This metric
leverages a number of key stats (e.g. opponent’s played, win/loss margin, etc…)
to determine the number of games a team was “supposed” to win, minus luck and
randomness. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So what do we see when we looks at Portland’s expected
record? Portland, even when they’re playing at their Kilimanjaro (ceiling does
not do it justice) is one of the <a href="http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/power-rankings-6-a-change-is-going-to-come">luckiest</a>
teams in the league! Therefore, even if the Blazers do continue to play at
their current blistering pace (more on this in a minute) we should expect some
regression.<br />
<b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><u><br /></u></b>
<b style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><u>2. The offense will slow down</u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
So the Blazers have won a few more games than they “should”
have, is that all we’re worried about? Well, not exactly – in addition to their
record, their performance, primarily on offense, is due for regression as well.
Although they are torching the league right now, there are two disconcerting aspects
of the Blazers offense that should make fans nervous:<br />
<br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs1Nu-ny6uJ4b0tCqihyXb4n6UrnMI9wxsddnYAqGNtIs-eubpuXcjURP-uzaUJ8mGhExfla4oQTzhM1rLNCdk7w1cEmAoYK0aLfEeJwsZBCvw1rbY4t27nSw2icvJtl-7Z19ywUX0B5-D/s1600/3+point+shooters.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs1Nu-ny6uJ4b0tCqihyXb4n6UrnMI9wxsddnYAqGNtIs-eubpuXcjURP-uzaUJ8mGhExfla4oQTzhM1rLNCdk7w1cEmAoYK0aLfEeJwsZBCvw1rbY4t27nSw2icvJtl-7Z19ywUX0B5-D/s1600/3+point+shooters.PNG" /></a></div>
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</div>
*Rookie<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">They’re reliant
on jump shooting: </b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The Blazers shoot a lot of jumpers
and don’t get to the rim. they are </span><a href="http://stats.nba.com/leagueTeamShots.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=30&sortField=FGA5ft1&sortOrder=DES&PerMode=PerGame" style="text-indent: -0.25in;">23<sup>rd</sup></a><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">
in the league in shot attempts from 0-5 feet** and consequently </span><a href="http://stats.nba.com/leagueTeamGeneral.html?ls=iref%3Anba%3Agnav&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=30&sortField=FTA_RATE&sortOrder=DES&PerMode=Totals&MeasureType=Four%20Factors" style="text-indent: -0.25in;">22<sup>nd</sup></a><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">
in FT attempt rate (FT/FG). This reliance on jump shooting is fine when you’re
flinging the 2</span><sup style="text-indent: -0.25in;">nd</sup><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> most </span><a href="http://stats.nba.com/leagueTeamGeneral.html?ls=iref%3Anba%3Agnav&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=30&sortField=FG3A&sortOrder=DES&PerMode=Per100Possessions" style="text-indent: -0.25in;">3-point
attempts/100 possessions</a><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> and hitting them at the </span><a href="http://stats.nba.com/leagueTeamGeneral.html?ls=iref%3Anba%3Agnav&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=30&sortField=FG3_PCT&sortOrder=DES&PerMode=Per100Possessions" style="text-indent: -0.25in;">highest percentage</a><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> in the league, but therein lies the second problem</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
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<ul>
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4349166639088073754" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4349166639088073754" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">And that
jump-shooting is ripe for regression</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The
Blazers have a free-flowing offense and good 3-point shooters, but even if the
whole team wears </span><a href="http://www.oregonlive.com/blazers/index.ssf/2011/01/blazers_practice_report_wesley.html" style="text-indent: -0.25in;">3-point
goggles</a><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> they won’t continue to shoot </span><a href="http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/teams/por#teamStats" style="text-indent: -0.25in;">4% better on 3’s</a><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">
than the NBA average. A closer look at the overachieving 3-point shooting of
Portland’s top chuckers supports this claim, as the Blazers most frequent 3-point
shooters are hitting well above their weight and are due for some regression:</span></li>
</ul>
<b><u><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">3. </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Portland is already playing its playoff
rotation!</span></u></b></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
A glance at the top 9 teams in the Western conference shows
that the Trailblazers are allocating a greater percentage of minutes to their
top 8 players than are their peers:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8R6yzuqLj9MDyTfuLf2cuk4Wo4Lp75AtVVRIY-vXP77ds_L9gjIwGQUjfq9OjBtqkvubdqTQBCYNjV-x9VYnJvOBrnQSVBicOEMPfBvSZdkm-Fgda8pvb5UGPmiEhbLO1WVp0nA5leW27/s1600/Top+8+Players+Minutes+Played+%25.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8R6yzuqLj9MDyTfuLf2cuk4Wo4Lp75AtVVRIY-vXP77ds_L9gjIwGQUjfq9OjBtqkvubdqTQBCYNjV-x9VYnJvOBrnQSVBicOEMPfBvSZdkm-Fgda8pvb5UGPmiEhbLO1WVp0nA5leW27/s1600/Top+8+Players+Minutes+Played+%25.PNG" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst">
Although I’m not overly anxious about Portland tiring out
its best players, this graphic does speak to two important concerns:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The Blazers have avoided the </span><a href="http://ripcityproject.com/2013/12/27/russell-westbrook-al-horford-injury-portland-trail-blazers/" style="text-indent: -0.25in;">injury
bug to a startling degree</a>:</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Given that injuries are</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> pretty random
(unless you have the mystical Phoenix Suns training stuff) it’s safe to assume Portland is not better at avoiding injuries than competitors and to wonder
what will happen to Portland when it suffers its first injury.</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"><b>They can't shorten their rotation any more: </b>The most crucial variable differentiating
playoff basketball from regular season basketball is the percentage of minutes
teams allocate to top performers. Come playoff time, teams shorten their
rotations and typically ride their best ~7 players for the whole game. This
reallocation of minutes from players 8-10 to players 1-7 enables teams to kick
their game up a notch. Unfortunately for the Blazers, they’ve already used that
bullet, so when other teams are hitting their NOS button, Portland will be
stuck Tokyo Drifting</span><span style="font-size: x-small; text-indent: -0.25in;">(1)</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span></li>
</ul>
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<u>4. <!--[endif]--><b>The
Western conference is really, really (<i>really)
</i>good!</b></u></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Even if I’m wrong about the expected regular season regression
(interestingly, I’ve been wrong many times before), the Blazers are hardly out
of the woods.<br />
<br />
Let’s be optimistic and assume the Blazers continue to outperform
their expected win/loss record, keep up their hot shooting and avoid injuries. Even
if the Blazers manage all of this and secure the 3 or 4 seed, they’ll basically earn a coin toss series against one of the West’s stacked lower seeds (Minnesota,
Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, etc…) who will be playing their stronger playoff
rotation. Even if they then win that coin toss (man, a lot has gone right for
these theoretical Blazers!) they’ll have earned a cordial invite to get
trounced by one of the West’s top seeds. <br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Call me a crazy, call me a “hater,” hell, you can even <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ULjCSK0oOlI">call me Al</a>. But when it
comes to the Blazers maintaining their success, I’m not buying. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
Are you?</div>
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<br />
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------<br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
1. I stopped watching those movies after the first one -
apologies if my reference makes no sense. </div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-4393319253941705342013-12-28T14:47:00.001-08:002013-12-28T15:49:49.577-08:00Did all the GM's get lost in Brad Pitt's eyes?<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRcnfuMl0YsjGh-Dg5fHsxsKjHg8sbbUKddds-fpnfq8mgo7hZB0WzUhHVhemrMGkpLLmbSeYQGvQw2PtO5wM-fZ4u_AZRQ5FZwMwmoXa0Um77H1oFABM-c9zhClujS6G_P8h_6CFsy6a_/s1600/BP.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRcnfuMl0YsjGh-Dg5fHsxsKjHg8sbbUKddds-fpnfq8mgo7hZB0WzUhHVhemrMGkpLLmbSeYQGvQw2PtO5wM-fZ4u_AZRQ5FZwMwmoXa0Um77H1oFABM-c9zhClujS6G_P8h_6CFsy6a_/s1600/BP.jpg" height="298" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Don't get lost in his eyes - Brad Pitt has important things to say!</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">This past weekend I was enjoying an artisinal craft lager (1) with my current friend and former couchmate John Lynn when we began discussing my most <a href="http://lifeisapeachbasket.blogspot.com/2013/12/the-secret-ingredient-to-consistently.html"><span style="color: blue;">recent blog post</span></a>. Although John cares roughly as much for sports as I do for canker sores, he is so devoted to being an active listener that he feigns interest in my rants and even provides valuable constructive criticism. After hearing me complain for entirely too long (2) about the consistent follies of NBA decision makers and how amazing it is that they continue to give away wins by employing horribly unproductive players, John posed the following question: "Is this misguided choice to play unproductive players unique to basketball or pervasive across other sports?" </span></div>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoNormalTable"><tbody></tbody></table>
</div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">As John wandered off to have his first cig
(of the last 12 minutes) I pondered his question and decided I'd look at
baseball. Baseball has long been at the forefront of the sports analytics
movement, a revolution that has only gained steam since the explosion of
Moneyball (3). Consequently, I presumed that this
massive headstart in emphasizing data driven analysis would result in a crop of
savvy MLB decision makers who are better able to evaluate production than their
NBA peers and subsequently to avoid giving away wins by not playing
unproductive players. Then again, one of MLB's mascots is a<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="https://www.bloomu.edu/sites/default/files/images/phanatic.jpg">crack-addict</a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>so maybe I shouldn't have given the
league too much credit. </span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">In order to test the extent to which MLB
decision makers understand the value of not employing unproductive players, I
turned to<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/">Fangraphs' Wins Above
Replacement</a><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>(WAR) statistic.
WAR is a great metric because of its conceptual simplicity: it calculates the
number of wins that a given player earned above a "replacement" level
player (i.e. a player who could be found in the minor leagues or
acquired for a choco taco). Specifically, I charted the aggregate negative WAR for
the entire MLB from the years of 1984-2013 in two year increments. For fun, I looked at both all players who appeared during those years as well as strictly
players who tallied enough appearances to qualify for batting/pitching titles. What
I found was, well, sigh:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
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</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy3F8scbzZhQgAxOVKWfX8cyNtOFZ9QC3NJufM2YycDCz_airDwDUlexvBS2v2vowkZaoDVOW_aci6C23-TMmnY8gBIOE1UWMkFGajg4PKfo0jJtQL2J7ikmdAcWqlNt5yKoXqXYL6zT-U/s1600/Aggregate+Negative+WAR+over+time+AXIS+1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy3F8scbzZhQgAxOVKWfX8cyNtOFZ9QC3NJufM2YycDCz_airDwDUlexvBS2v2vowkZaoDVOW_aci6C23-TMmnY8gBIOE1UWMkFGajg4PKfo0jJtQL2J7ikmdAcWqlNt5yKoXqXYL6zT-U/s1600/Aggregate+Negative+WAR+over+time+AXIS+1.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">According to the data, MLB decision makers
still give away tens of wins each year by allocating appearances to players who
aren't simply below average, but are so unproductive that they don't produce at the level of a "<i>AAAA"
replacement player!<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span></i>Moreover,
decision makers are giving away more wins now in the Sabrmetrics era than they did in the 80's and 90's!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">When I saw this chart, I was convinced
that something must be wrong. How could MLB decision makers, who must have seen
Brad Pitt leverage easily available data to work wonders for the imaginary A's,
still manage to employ such unproductive players? In order to dig a tad deeper,
I counted the number of negative WAR players employed throughout this same time
period(4). What I found was equally damning:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<br /></div>
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</div>
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</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw_sqkUhjMRhW2KTpUih40Qj_yMKb-lXSb3WE35vMQcak3ZPW8VyxFNmctf3RcwHQ8HN4ITN80-GDXOJYbDZEg9fDFOxOVBhf_RxIS1qdJHQw5WCAxpwe5RqUa4ZJuVUA4CiPXtZCOi-Yy/s1600/Aggregate+Negative+WAR+Over+time+AXIS.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw_sqkUhjMRhW2KTpUih40Qj_yMKb-lXSb3WE35vMQcak3ZPW8VyxFNmctf3RcwHQ8HN4ITN80-GDXOJYbDZEg9fDFOxOVBhf_RxIS1qdJHQw5WCAxpwe5RqUa4ZJuVUA4CiPXtZCOi-Yy/s1600/Aggregate+Negative+WAR+Over+time+AXIS.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Yup, MLB decision makers are employing a<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><i>greater</i><span class="apple-converted-space"> </span>number of sub-replacement level
players now than they were in the 80's. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">So what's going on here? There are a
number of explanations that likely contributed to this increase including an<span class="apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/us-baseball-injuries-idUSTRE77048V20110801">increase
in injuries</a>, changes to free agency/rising salaries, the steroid era
increasing the performance discrepancy between the most talented juicers and
least talented non-juicers as well as the expansion of the league - during
their infancy, the Rockies and Marlins [added in 1993] and Diamondbacks and
Rays [1998] all played some pretty horrible players (here's looking at you, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2158&position=3B">Greg
Dobbs!</a>). That said, the increasing pool of talent coming from Latin
America, Japan, etc... as well as the greatly increased understanding of what
makes a productive player should have been more than enough to offset this
change, right? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">All of which makes me wonder - did all the
GM's get lost in Brad Pitt's eyes during Moneyball?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Let me know your thoughts, questions and
critiques in the comments!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">1. You're right - it was a Coors Lite. And
that's only because they didn't serve Keystones...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">2. Entirely too long = 2 Coors or 3 missed
opportunities to speak to girls, depending on how you choose to measure time.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">3.This trailblazing can be primarily
attributed to logistical factors more than anything else:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">-Baseball has been around forever (i.e.
since the US of A was founded and time technically started)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">-The game is (painfully) slow and full of
deliberate actions, making it easy to track and quantify events<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">-Although there are clearly "team
plays" that require teammate interaction (e.g. double-plays, sacrifice
squeeze, etc...), baseball can be more easily evaluated as a series one-on-one
battles between pitcher and batter as opposed to other sports (looking at you,
football) in which it can be difficult to isolate an individual's contributions
within a team performance.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">4. In this case I strictly looked at
players who had enough appearances to qualify for batting/pitching awards.</span><span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-53187718763364445402013-12-09T17:17:00.000-08:002013-12-09T17:17:47.376-08:00The Secret Ingredient to Consistently Winning in the NBA<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
To
consistently win games in the NBA, team decision makers must follow a seemingly
simple recipe: acquire and employ productive players. However, for a variety of
reasons, this recipe can be hard to execute. For one, most NBA teams <u><a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2006/05/24/summarizing-our-thoughts-on-the-nba/">do
not properly evaluate talent</a>,</u> leading to the misallocation of valuable,
limited resources (draft picks, cap space, minutes, etc…). Additionally, many
productive players never even make it to the open market since league rules not
only stipulate that new players must enter the draft, but also incentivize
players to re-sign with their current teams via contractual favoritism. Moreover,
NBA history is pockmarked with examples of teams who tanked in order to acquire
a sure thing prospect, only to receive a picks that is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_NBA_draft">worse than what they’ve “earned”</a>
or to find that the “can’t-miss” prospect they drafted <a href="http://www.nbadraft.net/players/michael-beasley">did indeed miss</a>.
Throw in the unpredictability of <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2013/01/18/wasted-nba-talent/">injuries</a>, and it’s
clear that acquiring and employing productive players is more difficult and
less controllable than teams would like.</div>
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But what if there was another
way to win more regular season games that, while not as impactful as employing
stars, was far easier, cheaper and more controllable? Surely NBA decision
makers, being the rational actors they are, would recognize this strategy and
use it to their benefit…right? If you’re nodding “yes” right now, you’re
probably reading the wrong blog.</div>
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So what is this oft-overlooked,
easy, cheap and controllable tactic that could enable teams to easily add
regular season wins to their totals? <b>Simply
put, it’s to<i> </i>avoid<i> </i>giving any meaningful minutes to <i>really</i> bad players</b>, particularly to
veterans who aren’t likely to improve. </div>
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To accomplish this goal, a team
simply needs to reallocate all the minutes it’s currently giving to
unproductive players. In theory, this reallocation may sound feasible but
tricky, given that every other rational team should be competing for the same limited
group of productive players. In reality, however, this trade would be
remarkably simple, since NBA talent evaluators inaccurately measure
productivity, leaving a ripe field of underplayed, attainable players <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/11/where-is-the-talent-hiding-in-the-nba/">just
waiting to perform average or better</a>. </div>
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Furthermore, teams don’t even
need to uncover hidden gems to win more regular season games: simply reallocating
their wasted minutes to average or even slightly below average players would
lead to an increase in win totals! And yet, a quick scan of recent NBA history
indicates that even in the information age, almost every team is guilty of employing
players who should only see the floor in case of emergency. </div>
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As a quick and dirty way of capturing
the extent to which each team has allowed unproductive players to sabotage regular
season success, I looked at data from the 13 seasons spanning 1999-2013 and
summed each team’s negative wins produced over that time. This data certainly
doesn’t serve as a complete reflection of a team’s decision making competence
and there is the occasional (rare) justification for playing unproductive
players (e.g. rookies, trade bait, garbage time, etc…). However, this data serves
as a decent proxy for revealing just how many wins are given away by decision
makers whose job security is closely tied to their ability to win games:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8DL2833Jsdvzw-3xRbalY3izDQsi_gUncNEJeBROi6Zn3CkNoSy8kCy9GrADAsGg2OhmXiCrzIDf7T9CaKBu5uefOl0ywc9QYVRCNQs9Npf8cO3NvxMoo9wc2yk-A-glMgUB74seiIAt3/s1600/Table+avec+callouts.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8DL2833Jsdvzw-3xRbalY3izDQsi_gUncNEJeBROi6Zn3CkNoSy8kCy9GrADAsGg2OhmXiCrzIDf7T9CaKBu5uefOl0ywc9QYVRCNQs9Npf8cO3NvxMoo9wc2yk-A-glMgUB74seiIAt3/s1600/Table+avec+callouts.PNG" height="595" width="640" /></a></div>
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For even more fun, I generated a
scatter plot comparing each team’s negative wins produced and their overall win
percentage. What you see is a strong correlation that, although is to be
expected for a number of reasons, nevertheless accentuates how the most
consistent winners (San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, etc…) not only acquire good
players, but understand the value of <i>not</i>
giving away wins via the employment of bad players:</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjHmzagZH9GeEMj4coKIOSHJuc5Coga2wvZW0z1uztVkA2Kc48KzrtbHj1Q3X1c-Gsl29ac2gOfMxmkZ-dlOSOcdgFw8-wHhceQ6kXLtjiOGkqHsLbt9kZ0wL1pgoB3IcHz3dnwXQjzZNW/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjHmzagZH9GeEMj4coKIOSHJuc5Coga2wvZW0z1uztVkA2Kc48KzrtbHj1Q3X1c-Gsl29ac2gOfMxmkZ-dlOSOcdgFw8-wHhceQ6kXLtjiOGkqHsLbt9kZ0wL1pgoB3IcHz3dnwXQjzZNW/s1600/Capture.PNG" height="449" width="640" /></a></div>
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To summarize, it’s important to
recognize just how much a team loses by choosing to employ very bad players, particularly
veterans who aren’t like to improve. These teams waste valuable, limited resources
in the form of minutes and roster spots that at a bare minimum should be given
to unproductive young players with potential. Moreover, since we know that <a href="http://jse.sagepub.com/content/5/1/33.short">fan attendance is tied to
wins</a>, teams that give away wins are also choosing to give away money.</div>
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Nevertheless, there are clear
limits to the gains a team could achieve by redistributing minutes given to
poor players. Realistically, teams need good players to win, particularly in
the playoffs when wins can be <a href="http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2010/07/26/a-half-baked-notion-about-the-difference-between-the-regular-season-and-the-playoffs/">largely
attributed to your top 5 players</a>. However, in a competitive league where playoff
seeding (and home-court advantage) can come down to one or two games, it’s
amazing to see NBA decision makers consistently give away valuable wins by
choosing to play horrible players. </div>
</div>
Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-74012488623814841582013-06-23T19:42:00.001-07:002013-06-24T19:08:42.291-07:00Forget Doc Rivers - I want to hear more about the Garnett and Pierce deals!<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;">As
the Clippers and Celtics finally agreed to terms on a Doc
Rivers trade</span>,
the majority of the media attention is focused on the potential impact of Doc's movement on both squads. Since games are impacted
significantly more by players than coaches (assuming those coaches don’t
<a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DEN/2013.html">sabotage their teams</a> by neglecting to play their best players the minutes they
deserve), I've been surprised at how much less attention the much rumored (and still very much alive) Kevin Garnett/Paul Pierce trades have received.*<br />
<br />
Don't get me wrong: Rivers is universally revered as one of the league's best coaches and as a Bostonian I can attest to the genuine adoration the majority of Celtics fans feel for him; he's open-minded to new concepts, willing to defer to superior X's and O's defensive assistant coaches, puts his players in a position to excel and exudes class and charm to the point where the media have basically given him a free pass on his mistakes (e.g. deciding offensive rebounds were bad for business despite <a href="http://wagesofwins.com/2012/10/10/is-there-a-cost-to-offensive-rebounds/">all the data</a> suggesting otherwise). That said, the majority of coaches really don't make <a href="http://www.freakonomics.com/2013/05/30/a-former-nba-coach-argues-that-coaches-are-not-responsible-for-outcomes/">much of an impact</a>, especially compared to the impact of a valuable player. Any potential player exchange containing Garnett (or Pierce, Jason Terry or even Courtney Lee, for that matter...), in a vacuum, would produce far greater impact on the Celtics than the loss of Doc.<br />
<br />
So as much as I'm sad to see Doc go, I'm way more excited to see what takes place on the player front, particularly a Pierce or KG deal. It's safe to say the Celtics will explore their options with both Pierce and KG:<br />
<br />
Pierce has a $15 million option the Celtics would be fools to not pick up; there is no chance the C's acquire better value than an expiring Pierce deal for what is effectively $10 million given his $5 million buyout clause, especially considering the Celtics would still be over the cap even without Pierce's contract. I fully expect them to exercise Pierce's team option and then look to move him at the deadline, most likely for a package built around a 1st round pick or underachieving young former lottery pick.<br />
<br />
As for Garnett, given that he's has a no-trade clause and has shown little interest to play for a rebuilding team that isn't led by Doc Rivers (and certainly not for one that employs neither Rivers nor Pierce, who could be moved at any moment) and that the Celtics have equally little interest in paying him $12.5 million to play limited minutes for an also-ran, there is an impetus on both sides to work together to facilitate a move.<br />
<br />
The most obvious scenario would be a straight up swap with the Clippers for DeAndre Jordan. "Sources" have recently deemed this deal "dead" due to the NBA's insistence that any such trade involving these two as principals would be deemed an extension of the Doc transaction given the persistent rumors of their inclusion. That said, I'm skeptical that the league would go so far as to tell these two teams they cannot include those players in any deal in any form at say, the trade deadline (although I wouldn't put anything past a retiring David Stern - he might expand the league into China in the next couple months). Additionally, there are clear motivations on both sides to make such a deal happen, particularly from KG superfans Chris Paul and Doc Rivers. And if the deal does go through, Celtics fans should be thrilled for a number of reasons:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="line-height: 115%;">1. Although not all basketball careers follow a strict bell curve in terms of
productivity, there really isn't as much deviation as one would think (and not
nearly as much as in football or baseball where production is far less consistent from year to year). The vast majority of players <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703478704574612553424283372.html">peak at age 24-25</a> and then begin a slow but steady decline until their early-mid 30's (assuming they are still in the league by then) at which point they become valued more for their "leadership" and "experience" than their ability to actually impact a basketball game. Kevin Garnett turned 37 last month and has seen his productivity decrease sharply over the past two seasons; DeAndre Jordan, on the other hand will be turning 25 next month and has demonstrated that he's a consistently high performer at the peak of his powers. </span><br />
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 115%;">So for a team with no real shot at winning this year whose planning for the medium/long-term (say a 3-5 year window) would you rather have the aging veteran on his last legs (whose minutes will need to be managed this year and may not even play next year) or the spring chicken who is ready to contribute now and for the next few years? If you haven't realized this was a rhetorical question and have actually stopped to consider the options, you may actually have a future as an NBA decision maker. </span><br />
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 115%;">2. As a card carrying Celtic fanatic, it pains me to write this as much as it pains other C's fans to read it: not only is Jordan going to be better than Garnett in the future, but according to most advanced metrics he is currently better than Garnett and has been for the past 2 seasons. </span><br />
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
<span style="line-height: 115%;">Now I'll be the first to admit that I'm dubious as to how well any metrics quantify defense (Garnett's primary value these days) and that Garnett scores more points, grabs more defensive boards and fouls less than Jordan and even that KG's passing skills make him a regular Pistol Pete when compared to Jordan's stone hands. But a deeper look at the numbers elucidates a few areas where Jordan excels (offensive boards, blocks) and one key area where Jordan vastly outperforms Garnett to the point of being a superior player: points per shot. Over the past two seasons, DeAndre Jordan has averaged 1.5 points/shot, good for <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/field-goals/sort/scoringEfficiency/seasontype/2">top-10 in the league</a>. KG's scoring roughly 1.2 points/shot, placing him in the <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/field-goals/sort/scoringEfficiency/seasontype/2/count/41">mid 70's</a> among qualifying shooters. Although Garnett may score more raw points, the efficiency with which Jordan shoots makes him far more valuable offensively than KG and offsets many of Jordan's other weaknesses, too. </span><br />
<span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span>
When deciding whether to trade either or both of these guys, you need to run a quick cost-benefit analysis and determine whether holding on to KG and Pierce simply delays the inevitable rebuild an extra year, or genuinely squanders you chance to acquire good foundational picks and players. If I'm Ainge, I'm worrying more about my job security than loyalty and asking every GM "what will you give me for my two legends?"<br />
<br />
What would you say?</div>
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<br />
*Please don't tell me that Doc has greater worth than the aforementioned because his presence empowers the Clippers to retain All-world PG Chris Paul; if you think Chris Paul is signing outside LA, regardless of coach, GM, owner, mascot, etc..., <a href="http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25">re-read the CBA and get back to me</a>. Besides, if he cared enough about the leadership figures in the franchise to forgo roughly $27 million, wouldn't he be a tad bit skittish about signing up to play for an owner who is a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-sterling-los-angeles-clippers-comments-2011-1">crooked</a>, <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2542741">racist</a>, <a href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1677590-donald-sterlings-cheapest-moments-as-la-clippers-owner">cheapskate</a>?).<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
**It's still amazes me how badly Danny Ainge and whoever the hell runs the Clippers these days messed this up so badly. The Miami trio blatantly tampered to join forces and the League didn't even slap them with a fine.</div>
Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4349166639088073754.post-21672063899782258272013-06-13T18:53:00.002-07:002013-06-13T18:53:16.903-07:00Why the Nets had to hire Jason KiddIt's been reported that Jason Kidd will serve as the <a href="http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/9378352/jason-kidd-hired-new-coach-brooklyn-nets">new Head Coach of the Brooklyn Nets</a>. The initial reaction of many in the sports world is one of skepticism, due primarily to the fact that Kidd has no previous coaching experience at any level, let alone in the world's premier league; since Kidd has never done it before, the thinking goes, now way he can do it competently on his first try! Although I understand the risk averse thought process of NBA decision makers (the name of the game for NBA GM's is "don't give them a reason to fire you"), hiring Kidd would prove a prudent calculated risk for the Nets with the potential benefits far outweighing the risks.<br />
<br />
Head Coaches impact three major facets of the game responsibilities:<br />
<br />
A) Designing strategies<br />
B) Inspiring the troops to play hard<br />
C) Allotting burn to players<br />
<br />
(NB: When it comes to tangibly improving player performance, the differences between the vast majority of coaches is <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=yuboy7O3GPYC&pg=PT86&lpg=PT86&dq=stumbling+on+wins+coaches+impact+on+player+performance&source=bl&ots=fBySGGR26C&sig=2GqMfyVKBMiMeORHp_nJwk9yHMs&hl=en&sa=X&ei=GGu6UcbfM5Tr0QHou4HYCw&ved=0CCsQ6AEwAA">shockingly slim</a>. But assuming the Nets are seeking the rare coach who can impact player performance consistently, and they can't hire one of the select few coaches (Phil Jax, Popovich, etc...) who does improve player performance [and if the Nets could, they presumably would have by now] which option would you prefer: the low risk/low reward retread option or the higher risk/higher reward option, a well respected player/tactician who has never coached before?)<br />
<br />
I have few questions about Kidd on point A given the fact that he is a brilliant basketball mind and will no doubt feature an all-star staff of coaching assistants (including <a href="http://espn.go.com/new-york/nba/story/_/id/9380774/jason-kidd-introduced-coach-brooklyn-nets">Lawrence Frank</a>, the same Mensa who only played Andre Drummond 21 minutes/game last year). As for getting his guys to buy-in, Kidd is a well-respected veteran fresh off (during...?) his playing career, thus making him identifiable to both veterans and youngsters.<br />
<br />
That leaves C: playing the right players. This is a biggie because it's the coach's most impactful decision; but isn't playing time allotment a concern the Nets would have with any new hire? Would you rather have Larry Brown and his debilitating obsession with shitty veterans who "play the game the right way?" Additionally, when you consider the makeup of this team (PG, SG, SF and C are locked up for the next couple years, whether those players deserve the run or not), the risk is further minimized.<br />
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So really, the only risky bet you're making is that Kidd (and his staff) understands player productivity and lineups well enough to not hurt you. Considering the following potential rewards, is hiring Kidd not well worth the minimal risk?<br />
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-Put yourself in Brooklyn's hipster Chuck Taylors: you are in roughly the worst possible cap scenario in which any NBA team can find themselves: <a href="http://www.hoopsworld.com/brooklyn-nets-team-salary">up against the luxury tax</a> for the foreseeable future with a semi-competitive team, no good draft picks/young studs and sans flexibility; you owe big money long-term contracts to Deron Williams, who may or may not have lost 20-25 lbs throughout the season, Brook Lopez, who has yet to meet a rebound he's found of, Gerald Wallace (whose productivity just fell off a cliff and isn't getting up any time soon) and Iso Joe Johnson, whose deal looks particularly egregious because A) he's not very good and B) he signed it during the previous CBA when salaries were longer and inflated.<br />
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Realistically, your team ain't competing any time soon unless you hit a homerun in acquiring a stud player or coach. Can you afford to NOT take the high risk/high reward option, for either players or coaches? In Kidd, it's not like you're getting some Vinny Del Negro chopped liver: you're getting a rare basketball mind - one of the finest offensive tacticians the NBA has seen and an underrated defender who relied on guile to maintain some effectiveness as he aged. You may not have this chance again if some other team picks him up.<br />
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-Given your lack of cap flexibility, the only chance you have at acquiring any good players is getting a steal in the draft, fleecing another team in a trade or talking a veteran into the midlevel or veterans exceptions. Given that Billy King is your GM, you can throw the draft/trade route out the window. Now I know veterans typically choose to sign with winners, but is it out of the question to think Kidd could speak with some of his mentees and friends and get them to play for him in New York? At the least it's an added potential benefit.<br />
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-Not only does it help you on the court, but it helps your branding and marketing. Hiring a Nets legend away from the rival Knicks is exactly the type of splash every mediocre, high salaried New York team needs. <br />
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-And finally, I cannot verbalize how excited I am by the thought of a current day player-coach. Yes, Jason Kidd has retired, but as any sports fan knows, an athlete's retirement announcement is roughly the equivalent of his wedding vows. Besides, is there really any doubt the JKidd would be far and away their best option at backup guard? According to advanced metrics, Kidd was still a <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kiddja01.html">valuable player</a> last year on a <a href="http://www.thenbageek.com/players/60-jason-kidd">per minute basis</a> with the only real knock on him being his lack of scoring, a non-issue on this current Nets team.<br />
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So what do you think - was hiring Kidd worth the risk?Lexie Barza (@docoolstuff)http://www.blogger.com/profile/04350727179294573657noreply@blogger.com0